Predicting the chiplet adoption timeframe and key enablers.
If we look at the semiconductor industry expansion during the last 25 years, adoption of design IP in every application appears to be one of the major factors of success, with silicon technology incredible development by a x100 factor, from 250nm in 2018 to 3nm (if not 2nm) in 2023. We foresee the move to chiplet-based architecture to soon play the same role that SoC chip-based architecture and massive use of design IP has played in the 2000’s.
The question is how to precisely predict chiplet adoption timeframe and what will be the key enablers for this revolution. We will see if diffusion of innovation theory can be helpful to fine-tune a prediction, determine what type of application will be the driver. Chip-to-chip interconnect protocol standard specifications allowing fast industry adoption, driving applications like IA or smartphone application processor quickly seems to be the top enabler, but EDA tools efficiency or packaging new technologies and dedicated fab creation, among others, are certainly key.
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