Fab Capacity Shortages

By Ed Sperling - 19 Mar, 2015 - Comments: 0

Planning fab capacity is a little like parachuting out of an airplane. Your chances of getting hurt are 50-50 every time you jump, and past experience doesn't necessarily make it safer the next time. At the leading edge, there is debate about just how much capacity should be added at 16/14nm, or whether the lion's share of that investment should go to 10nm or even 7nm. At least part of the d... » read more

Will 10nm Be The Last Big Node?

By Ed Sperling - 19 Feb, 2015 - Comments: 0

There is a great deal of attention being paid to established nodes these days and everything up to and including 10nm. What comes after that remains a mystery. Intel and a handful of others will keep pushing to the next nodes, of course. Still, where the commercial foundries—including Intel—place their next big bets is a matter of ongoing debate. There is no doubt that 7nm and 5nm will b... » read more

Redefining Progress

By Ed Sperling - 22 Jan, 2015 - Comments: 0

After lots of wrangling over the whether Moore's Law is alive, dead, or languishing at somewhere in between, that discussion now seems about as relevant as the look and feel of Apple's early Macintosh operating system—an issue that back in the 1980s spawned a very public war with Microsoft. Today that argument is about as relevant as whether Betamax was better than VHS. Whether it's Moor... » read more

What’s The Other Guy Doing?

By Ed Sperling - 11 Dec, 2014 - Comments: 0

Competition is generally a good thing. It improves service, promotes innovation, forces efficiencies and price cuts where necessary, and it ratchets up the pressure to bring products and services to market faster. Those who can't keep up usually lose market share, and eventually the business sector consolidates until something comes along to disrupt it. That cycle has been repeated in every ... » read more

Future Directions Unknown

By Ed Sperling - 13 Nov, 2014 - Comments: 0

The semiconductor industry has been on cruise control when it comes to shrinking features, but as process technology progresses to 10nm and 7nm there will be some significant changes. For one thing, the cost per new design will continue to rise, which means only the largest companies with the biggest market opportunity will be able to invest at the leading-edge nodes. Chips for mobile phones... » read more

EUV Still Matters…But Less

By Ed Sperling - 16 Oct, 2014 - Comments: 0

For all the chatter and occasional tirades about EUV missing its market window—it's true, EUV will have missed five market windows by 10nm—it still matters. And the sooner EUV hits the market with a viable power source, the better off the entire semiconductor manufacturing industry will be. But even EUV is a sideshow to some important shifts underway in technology. While technologically ... » read more

Why Investments At Advanced Nodes Matter

By Ed Sperling - 18 Sep, 2014 - Comments: 0

Despite all the talk about rising costs of development, uncertainties about lithography and talk about the death of Moore’s Law, a record number of companies are developing chips at 16nm/14nm. That may sound surprising, but asking why that’s happening is probably the wrong question. The really critical question is what they’re going to do with those chips. What’s become quite evident... » read more

Why The Next Couple Process Nodes Are So Critical

By Ed Sperling - 14 Aug, 2014 - Comments: 0

In the greater scheme of things, one process node doesn't matter all that much. In fact, it has become common practice for big chipmakers to skip nodes for some of their chips as power issues becoming increasingly complex, time-to-market windows shrink and leapfrogging is viewed as a way to maximize resources while remaining über-competitive. But the next process node, and certainly the nex... » read more

All Roads Point Up…But When?

By Ed Sperling - 17 Jul, 2014 - Comments: 0

One of the clear messages at Semicon West this month was that stacked die are coming soon. The only question is how soon. This isn’t so simple to answer. It depends on a lot of factors, and for most of them there aren’t any clear answers. First of all, no one is certain what the cost equation will look like at 14/16nm, particularly once the process technology becomes more mature. Ther... » read more

How Much Multipatterning?

By Ed Sperling - 19 Jun, 2014 - Comments: 2

The latest consensus among litho experts is that extreme ultraviolet (EUV) will appear in the market sometime in coming months in a commercially viable form. The only question is the degree of commercially viability, and what it will actually cost. While some debate lingers about whether EUV will ever get going, the general feeling is that enough progress has been made recently to make it work.... » read more

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